My favorite way to review the draft is to re-rank prospects after the draft based on how likely I think they are to succeed in the NBA, accounting for the team that drafted them and, in the case of second-round picks, the contracts they were or were not signed to. I’m only ranking players that got drafted. Apologies to PJ Hall, Isaiah Crawford, Jaylin Williams, Jalen Bridges, Drew Pember, Riley Minix, David Jones, Dylan Disu, Trey Alexander, Reece Beekman, Jaedon LeDee, and Judah Mintz.
1. Zach Edey (picked #9 by Grizzlies)
Edey went to a great situation with the Grizzlies. They are well-coached and well-managed, and Morant can get Edey the ball while Jaren Jackson Jr. can space the floor around Edey and help with rim protection. There are no excuses if Edey does not exceed.
2. Reed Sheppard (picked #3 by Rockets)
Great pick and great situation. The Rockets already have athletic creators Sheppard can play off, and he gets to learn from Fred VanVleet, a player whom Sheppard shares similarities with.
3. Donovan Clingan (picked #7 by Blazers)
Another great pick. I don’t trust Blazers management, and I don’t love that Clingan has to start his career behind Ayton and Time Lord. But the question marks around those two make it likely that Clingan can establish himself in short order.
4. Jared McCain (picked #16 by 76ers)
Another great pick. McCain should look good playing off Embiid and Maxey. McCain and Maxey are a small backcourt, but I think they are collectively athletic, strong, and competitive enough that it should be okay, especially with Embiid patrolling the paint.
5. Stephon Castle (picked #4 by Spurs)
Another good pick. Playing with Wembanyama would help almost any player in the draft, and Castle is no exception.
6. Ron Holland (picked #5 by Pistons)
Good player, bad fit. Holland is unrefined and now must develop playing for an inept Pistons franchise and surrounded by athletic players who can’t shoot.
7. Kel’el Ware (picked #15 by Miami)
This is a very good pick. Ware has talent and skill, but he needs to refine his discipline, technique, and consistency. Miami is the perfect place for him.
8. Robert Dillingham (picked #8 by Wolves)
Again, good pick and good fit. Dillingham’s strength is scoring and his weakness is defense. The Wolves lack in scoring but have an abundance of defense.
9. Da’Ron Holmes (picked #22 by Nuggets)
Great pick and fit. Holmes can play with or without Jokic. Ideally, Jokic can help get Holmes established by feeding him easy looks, and then Holmes can get some burn playing as Jokic’s backup.
10. Alex Sarr (picked #2 by Wizards)
It’s meh value, but I really dislike the fit for Sarr. There’s no evidence that this era of the Wizards’ management is competent. It seems like management has convinced the Wizards’ owner that they need to be bad for a long time to “rebuild the right way” (aka keep their jobs as long as possible). Sarr will face an uphill battle to stardom in Washington.
11. Devin Carter (picked #13 by Kings)
I like Carter, but I like the Kings’ acquisition of him a little less. The Kings’ backcourt is crowded, and they just got rid of Davion Mitchell, a similar player to Carter (albeit with a worse pre-draft profile), who could never establish himself in Sacramento.
12. Nikola Topic (picked #12 by Thunder)
Solid value for the Thunder, but I’m unsure why they are so desperately loading up on guards. Between the Thunder's crowded backcourt and Topic’s injury, it’s a real possibility that he does not play much his first two years in OKC. That seems like a wasted pick to me.
13. Terrance Shannon Jr. (picked #27 by Timberwolves)
Great value and pick. Shannon should be able to help the Wolves right away off the bench. They can develop Shannon as a NAW replacement if NAW ever gets too expensive.
14. Baylor Scheierman (picked #30 by Celtics)
Another great pick. I had Scheierman ranked 16th, and Boston is a great fit for him because Boston knows how to use shooters.
15. Isaiah Collier (picked #29 by Jazz)
Nice value pickup for the Jazz. They are developmentally focused right now, so it makes sense to take a shot on Collier’s talent at #29. They may need to clear their glut of guards to extract maximum value from him.
16. Dalton Knecht (picked #17 by Lakers)
This is a good spot for Knecht. His profile fits what the Lakers need, although I’m skeptical that his translation will be as smooth as others predict.
17. Zaccarie Risacher (picked #1 by Hawks)
Bad pick. Risacher could be okay, and he will have a lot of opportunities given to him because he went #1. But he just does not have the talent of a #1 pick. 6’9 with a decent jumpshot and solid decision-making does not warrant a #1 pick.
18. Jaylon Tyson (picked #20 by Cavs)
Caris LeVert was a comparison I had for Tyson, and then of course, he gets picked by the team that employs LeVert. This is a solid pick and value.
19. Tidjane Salaun (picked #6 by Hornets)
Salaun feels like a reach at #6. He has some tools, but his production is speculative at this point. At least he’ll get lots of reps in Charlotte since they project to be bad again.
20. Matas Buzelis (picked #11 by Bulls)
I did not care for this pick either. Buzelis does not have many clear standout NBA skills at this point. His best trait last season was providing good weakside rim protection for an awful defense. I don’t see the value at #11.
21. Cody Williams (picked #10 by Jazz)
I do not like Cody Williams as a prospect. His only skills were being young, 6’8, and finishing very well at the rim but on low volume. Every year, Utah’s GM, Danny Ainge, makes one pick I like and one I don’t. The time-honored tradition continues.
22. Jonathan Mogbo (picked #31 by Raptors)
Mogbo is a great example of my theory that once a player slips to the second round, his career will be dictated more by luck than by his own work ethic or talent. Fortunately for Mogbo, he’s great friends with the Raptors’ prodigal son, Scottie Barnes, so Mogbo was awarded a guaranteed multi-year NBA contract. He has the talent of a top 20 pick, so he could do some damage with the Raptors.
23. Kyle Filipowski (picked #32 by Jazz)
Filipowski is a top-5 talent who slipped to the second round. I’ll assume that teams had a good reason for letting him slip, but this is still great value.
24. Tyler Smith (picked #33 by Bucks)
Smith is a first-round talent who will probably get good run with the Bucks because they are starved for young talent.
25. Pacome Dadiet (picked #25 by Knicks)
I performed an extremely cursory review of Dadiet, and I wasn’t impressed, but I have been impressed by the Knicks’ management recently, so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt.
26. Tristan da Silva (picked #18 by Magic)
Da Silva fits a role for the Magic (big role-playing shooter), but there were better players who fit this mold that went later in the draft. His age and stat profile just are not exciting enough to warrant being picked at #18.
27. Yves Missi (picked #21 by Pelicans)
Missi is a meh pick. He probably lacks the skill and feel to be a good starter, but he could be a good backup.
28. Carlton “Bub” Carrington (picked #14 by Wizards)
Bub’s game is smooth and aesthetically pleasing, but the production never matched the smoothness. The Wizards appear to have an affinity for this archetype, given Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma.
29. Ja’Kobe Walter (picked #19 by Raptors)
I’m not a Walter fan. His strengths are that he was decent as a freshman at Baylor, is young, and has a nice-looking jumpshot. That’s not enough for pick #19.
30. Jamal Shead (picked #45 by Raptors)
I like the Shead pick. He’s a top 20 talent. Hopefully, he gets a real shot in Toronto. It’s not encouraging that they just acquired Davion Mitchell. Mitchell is a worse version of Shead, but Mitchell will likely take Shead’s minutes on seniority grounds.
31. Cam Spencer (picked #53 by Grizzlies)
32. Dillon Jones (picked #26 by Thunder)
33. Jaylen Wells (picked #39 by Grizzlies)
34. Kyshawn George (picked #27 by Wizards)
35. K.J. Simpson (picked #42 by Hornets)
36. Johnny Furphy (picked #35 by Pacers)
37. Nikola Djurisic (picked #43 by Hawks)
38. Ryan Dunn (picked #28 by Suns)
39. Pelle Larsson (picked #44 by Heat)
40. Adem Bona (picked #41 by 76ers)
41. Tyler Kolek (picked #34 by Knicks)
42. Juan Nunez (picked #36 by Spurs)
43. A.J. Johnson (picked #23 by Bucks)
44. Anton Watson (picked #54 by Celtics)
45. Tristen Newton (picked #49 by Pacers)
46. Oso Ighodaro (picked #40 by Suns)
47. Enrique Freeman (picked #50 by Pacers)
48. Ajay Mitchell (picked #38 by Thunder)
49. Bronny James (picked #55 by Lakers)
50. Bobi Klintman (picked #37 by Pistons)
51. Antonio Reeves (picked #47 by Pelicans)
52. Melvin Ajinca (picked #51 by Mavericks)
53. Quinten Post (picked #52 by Warriors)
54. Kevin McCullar Jr. (picked #56 by Knicks)
55. Harrison Ingram (picked #48 by Spurs)
56. Cam Christie (picked #46 by Clippers)
57. Ulrich Chomche (picked #57 by Raptors)
58. Ariel Hukporti (picked #58 by Knicks)
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