Anthony Edwards' vitals:
Introducing Anthony Edwards
Anthony Edwards, a 6'5 shooting guard, played the majority of his highschool basketball at Holy Spirit Preparatory School in his hometown of Atlanta. As the #2 overall RSCI recruit, he shouldered a heavy load at the relatively talent bare Holy Spirit, averaging 29 points, 2 assists, and 9 rebounds a game. While at Holy Spirit, Edwards displayed an impressive blend of 3-level scoring and physical tools, but his passing and defense were inconsistent.
A similar story unfolded in Edwards' lone season at college. Edwards played at Georgia, and was far and away the best player on a team overmatched against most SEC opponents. Edwards again excelled as an athletic 3-level scorer, averaging 19.3 PPG, but scouts continued to question Edwards' ability and/or willingness to score efficiently, create good shots for teammates, and defend.
Edwards declared for the NBA draft, and he is 18.8 years old as of June 25, 2020. Most draft analysts think Edwards is in a two-man race with LaMelo Ball to be the #1 pick. Edwards certainly offers much appeal, as he possesses an impressive combination of shot making, shot versatility, and 3-level scoring. And at 6'5 with a 6'9 wingspan, a very strong 225 lb frame, and explosive athleticism, Edwards should have a physical advantage against most NBA players. However, at Georgia Edwards struggled to score efficiently, create good looks for his teammates, and stay engaged on defense. NBA teams must decide if Edwards' scoring package and overall approach can translate to winning basketball. If so, Edwards has all-star potential.
Overview of Edwards' game
OFFENSE
Edwards is a dynamic 3-level scorer. He's a confident shooter and possesses a versatile jumper. He has deep range on pullups and stepbacks, and he gets into them quickly. He can pullup or stepback from a variety of dribble moves going left or right. He has a solid midrange-pullup game and is comfortable pulling up off screens. Edwards' physical tools make him a good finisher. He is very strong going to the rim and uses his strength to push defender out of the way. His solid length and vertical explosion help him get his shot off cleanly. Edwards' finishing craft is still developing; he must improve at using his body to shield his finishes from defenders, and he must develop a better floater.
Although Edwards' 3-level scoring is very intriguing, his career has been plagued with efficiency issues. At Georgia, Edwards shot 29.4% on 3s, 30.2% on 2pt jumpers, and had an overall true shooting of 52.0%. Edwards' inefficiency stems largely from shot selection issues; he is too willing to take tough, contested jumpers early in the shotclock. Edwards could improve his efficiency by getting to the rim and free-throw line more often. It is possible that, even with improved shot selection, Edwards is not an accurate enough shooter to be efficient. However, between the versatility of Edwards' shooting, the sheer number of attempts he gets off, and his solid form and mechanics, there are many indicators that Edwards will shoot.
Edwards is also a mediocre passer that has struggled to create good looks for his teammates. He is not an anticipatory passer, he is often late on basic reads, and he is not adept at feeding the roll man out of PNR. He also struggles to pass off the live dribble, which limits the utility of his passing. However, there are reasons for optimism. Edwards passes well in transition; he makes passes with either hand and finds both cutters and shooters. Part of Edwards' struggle with passing off the live-dribble in the half court is likely related to his shaky handle on drives, so an improvement in his handle should create an improvement in his passing. Edwards has also showed some ability to play in the PNR; the threat of his scoring draws multiple defenders, and Edwards is good at stringing out the PNR. If Edwards learns to leverage the threat of his scoring, he should be an effective passer, even if his reads remain basic. Finally, given his 30.4% usage rate, the Edwards' relatively low TOV% of 12.9% is solid.
DEFENSE
Edwards was not a good defender in college, and he must drastically improve his awareness, engagement, and effort to defend well in the NBA. However, Edwards possesses the physical tools necessary to be a good NBA defender.
Edwards struggled in all aspects of team defense. Although he occasionally jumped a passing lane, he did not make many plays as a team defender. He frequently missed rotations and neglected important defensive duties like stunting playing the block. Edwards also struggled offball; he lost track of shooters, did not fight through screens, and used poor closeout technique.
Onball, Edwards was inconsistent but showed potential. He has a great combination of strength, quickness, and agility, and he is capable of beating perimeter players to their spots and forcing them into tough shots, where he has the length and leaping to contest. Edwards also showed ability as a POA attack in PNR; when he focused and deployed good technique, he frequently beat ballhandlers to their spots. Edwards onball defense suffers from two main deficiencies which render him susceptible to blowbys: 1) he pressures up ballhandlers too much (especially non-shooters); and 2) he swipes at the ball too often.
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Projections for NBA Impact & Role
My optimistic but still realistic projection for Edwards is that he will develop into a lower-end allstar that is capable of being one of the 3 best players on a championship-level team.
Edwards' impressive combination of 3-level scoring and dynamic athleticism should make him a very effective offensive player. He is too gifted for defenses to takeaway his scoring. He should be able to get into his pullups and stepbacks against nearly any NBA defender, and I predict he will have enough accuracy (mostly through improving shot selection) on his stepbacks and pullups that defenders will have to respect them. This should open his driving game, and I predict that, with his great physical tools, Edwards will improve his finishing craft and become a good to great finisher. I also predict Edwards will improve the frequency with which he gets to the rim and free-throw line; NBA coaches will get him to drive more aggressively, and Edwards will enjoy a corresponding efficiency boost.
Although Edwards is unlikely to become a great passer, he should learn to leverage the threat of his scoring to create open looks for teammates. He is unlikely to progress pass the point of making open passes, but, given the threat of his scoring, he should be able to create and make easy passes. He will also run some secondary PNR.
I envision Edwards as a secondary playmaker and scorer on most good teams. He can take advantage of the open shots and driving lanes his primary initiator creates for him, and he can be a secondary option. With his physical tools and scoring ability, Edwards should have an easy time getting to 20 points a night in the NBA.
Defensively, Edwards should develop into an above-average defender. With his great strength and good quickness, he has the physical tools to succeed. If Edwards learn to stop swiping and play with more discipline, he will be a good onball and POA defender who can guard 2s, 3s, bigger 1s, and possibly even some 4s. Edwards struggles with engagement offball, so he must guard onball as much as possible. A switch-heavy defensive system like Houston's would simplify Edwards' defensive decision-making and help him stay engaged and maximize his physical tools. Although Edwards was a poor team defender in college, I predict that, given his physical tools and youth, he can become a mediocre team defender that can stay on the floor in the playoffs.
If Edwards develops less well than I hope, his game may resemble players like Zach LaVine or Andrew Wiggins. Edwards may become a volume scorer on mediocre efficiency that does not translate his scoring into winning at a high level.
Edwards' ceiling outcomes may include scenarios where 1) Edwards' potent scoring helps him develop into an excellent passer because he can create passing opportunities easily; and 2) at 6'5 225lbs as a 18-year-old, it is possible Edwards continues to add muscle and develops a LeBron-James level frame. What will Edwards game look like if he's 6'5 240lbs and still quick and explosive?
Detailed Scouting Report
Physical Tools
Nice first step and burst. Explosive out of his dribble moves.
Long strides. Half-a-step is all he needs to get separation. Gets to rim quickly. Although his handle must be improved, he has the physical tools to step around defenders easily.
Gets lower to the ground than most 6'5 players. Contorts his body well on drives. Stays low and explosive.
Good lateral quickness. Slides easily. Inconsistent technique and engagement level, but the physical tools are there.
Light and quick on his feet.
Solid hip quickness. Change of directions look natural to him.
Might have some balance issues (especially on defense). When he swipes he leans really heavily in one direction. Hard to tell if it is a product of poor technique, or if there is a legitimate physiological issue.
Quick hands. Gets deflections because opponents are surprised by his quickness
Excellent two-foot leaper, and most comfortable leaping off two feet. Generates a lot of force.
Good, not great, one foot-leaper. Not usually dunking in traffic, but uses nice elevation to get his layups off. Jumps off either foot.
Quick second jump. Doesn't need load time.
Great strength and frame. This past season was listed at 6'5, 225lbs as a 18-year-old. Chiseled frame.
Uses his strength well to clear space. Bumps defenders out of his way Takes a lot of contact at the basket. Vast majority of defenders bounce off him on his drives.
Draws fouls because he's so strong. Edwards can bump into defenders and get the call.
Solid height and length for a two-guard: 6'5, 6'9 wingspan, 8'4 standing reach. Not elite, but very good length.
Mentality, Intangibles, Context
Has somewhat of a "gunner" mentality on offense. Gets his shots up. Generally a shoot first, pass second player.
Shouldered heavy usage at Georgia (30.4%). He was by far their best player, and was relied on heavily to create.
Poor shot selection. Shoots off-balance 3s from way beyond arc. Lacks a conscience. Settled for difficult stepbacks, or forced tough shots when open teammates were available.
Struggled with efficiency as lead initiator, but may be much more efficient in smaller role - if he's willing to accept it. Showed promising flashes of offball play. Cutting, catch-and-shoot 3s, curl plays.
Appears to have somewhat of a means treak. Took matchup with Kentucky's Tyrese Maxey, a fellow freshman star, seriously. Went after Maxey, taunted him, etc.
Floats on defense. Usually engaged onball but pretty absent offball.
Based on interview footage, he seems very self aware and willing to improve his weaknesses.
Edwards showed the same weaknesses (efficiency, passing, defense) that he showed in highschool. On one hand, very impressive that scoring and physical tools translated so well. But also disappointing that his weaknesses did not improve.
Finishing
Very good college finisher: shot 69.4% at the rim. But still has room for improvement.
Finishes with either hand. Nice touch - especially off glass.
Prefers right hand, but good with left as well.
Has good vertical explosion for finishing. Dunks in traffic off two feet. Not quite as good off 1, but still gets up enough to avoid shot blockers.
Best part of his finishing is his strength. Dislodges defenders easily. Knocks them out of his way and absorbs contact well. Often finished through multiple defenders.
FTA/FGA rate is merely solid at 33.4%. However, Edwards takes A LOT of jumpshots, so this number is misleading. Edwards gets fouled a lot on his drives.
Although Edwards drew many fouls at the rim, he appeared to lose concentration once he felt contact. Looked like he settled for free throws, even though he probably could have got the and-1 if he tried.
Finishing will improve if Edwards learns a few more finishing tricks, such as shielding with his body, using upfakes, etc. Although a good finisher, Edwards lacks finishing craft. Right now he relies on strength + leaping + touch.
Does not get to his floater much and does not look comfortable when he uses it.
Edwards' tunnel vision also inhibits his finishing. Once he starts driving he rarely passes, and especially not off the live dribble.
Edwards' finishing plays well offball. He is a great cutter: he has nice timing and sells his cuts with fakes towards 3pt line.
Edwards is a great cutter. He knows how to setup the defense, and he finishes explosively:
Edwards absorbs lots of contact on his drives, and he gets to the free-throw line easily:
Edwards' strength + frame is impressive. Look how easily he discards Maxey on this spin:
Edwards goes through two defenders and finishes with the left hand. Nice:
Shooting
Shot a poor percentage on high volume (29.4% 3pt fg; 30.2% 2pt jumpers), but the difficulty and versatility of Edwards' attempts, along with his solid mechanics, indicate that Edwards could be a special shotmaker.
Edwards' jumper mechanics and form have some issues, but they are solid overall. Clean wrist action, holds follow through, gets into his shot quickly. Sometimes kicks legs out when coming down - not sure why. Fades backwards sometimes. Twists his lower body in the air. Does not shoot straight up and down. Presumably the twist helps him generate force.
High release point - difficult to block. Jumps high, good length, gets into shot fast.
Extremely versatile jumper. Gets his shot going left or right and from a variety of dribble sequences: lots of stepbacks, crossovers, in-out dribbles, side-steps. Can catch-and-shoot, pullup, or stepback. Very smooth transitioning from dribbling to shooting - helps him get shot off quickly.
Deep range on his shot. Pulls up well beyond 3pt line.
Aggressive pullup-3pt shooter. When defenses go under he pulls it. Pulls going left or right (may have slight preference for going left).
As mentioned, gets into pullup from a variety of dribbles. Uses hesitations and in-out dribbles to freeze defenders and get into pullup. Barely needs space to get his shot.
Also takes stepback 3s. Gets into them really well out of crossovers. Generates lots of power. Creates lots of space.
Streaky - shot a low percentage overall on 3pters (29.4%) but when he gets hot, he gets very hot. And most of his misses are not "bad." Not many airballs.
Only 45.8% of his 3s were assisted, but he looked comfortable taking catch-and-shoot 3s. Quick release, nice elevation, appears unaffected by contests. Sometimes when he's too open he pauses and squares the shot up, which leads to misses. Better shooting quickly.
Not a movement shooter on catch-and-shoot 3s. More of a standstill or small movement shooter at this point. First instinct off movement is to dribble.
Nice midrange game: Stops on a dime for his midrange pullups. Gets into them quickly. Goes from 100-to-zero fast. Shoots midrangers out of a variety of actions: pullups, curls, high post. Really nice left-to-right midranger on curl plays. Effective shooting midrangers out of high post. Usually does a stepback.
Fine free-throw shooter at 77.2%.
Overall: Edwards' mechanics are fine and the versatility of his shot is elite, but the percentages are not great (yet).
Edwards has a versatile midrange game. He can shoot off pullups, out of the highpost, or off curl plays. Here's a curl play:
Edwards makes incredibly difficult pullups:
Edwards' stepback is a big part of his game. He gets to it quickly and out of a variety of dribble moves:
Handle
Good handle for getting to his shot, but must improve handle on his drives.
Quick out of his moves. Gets defenders off balance and goes by them.
Very nice rip-through move going left or right. Powerful and explosive.
Creates separation easily through rip-throughs and jabsteps. Does not need much dribble creativity to create driving angles.
Handle pairs well with his shot. Gets into pullups easily going left or right.
Has tight crossovers, including between the legs.
Has spin move going either way. Knocks defenders off balance with it.
Comfortable going left or right.
Looks uncomfortable with his handle on drives. Gets a little high and away from his body. Handle slows him down sometimes. Edwards struggles with passing on the live dribble, and I suspect lack of confidence in his handle was a partial cause.
Nice grab-and-go transition game. Knives through defenses easily in open court. Much more comfortable handling in big spaces, and he passes much better off live dribble in transition.
Passing
Limited passer.
Does not pass off live dribble in half court and gets blinders in traffic.
Misses passes once he starts driving. Too many instances of taking tough pullups when he has open teammates. Usually sees passes on his drive after he picks up the dribble.
Generally not a live-dribble passer. Picks up dribble to make the pass.
In general, not the quickest with his reads. Passing windows close before he sees them.
Rarely makes advanced reads: generally passes when teammates are open - does not pass them open. Reactive, not anticipatory.
Doesn't manipulate defenses. Doesn't use his eyes or head or pass fakes.
Usually zones in on one passing target. Doesn't look like he considers multiple options.
Not very creative: doesn't use many over-the-head or hook passes.
Solid at executing set plays, e.g. finding a shooter off a curl play.
Small flashes of live-dribble passing with either hand. More than enough strength to hit weakside corners. When he does hit corners, accuracy is nt the best. Generally does not hit shooters in numbers. Shooters have to move a bit to catch his passes.
Much better passing in transition. Makes a lot of bounce passes to cutters, hits corners. But still does not throw lob passes and does not make many hit aheads - starts looking to pass once he crosses halfcourt.
Pick-and-Roll Offense
Some PNR potential due to three-level scoring and modicum of craft, but not a good enough passer to be a sophisticated PNR operative.
Flashes some patience with screens and rescreens. Able to snake PNR, get middle.
Can go either direction in PNR
Nice patience stringing out defense. Keeps dribble alive.
Moves backwards too often. Does not put enough pressure on him, is not aggressive enough getting downhill. Could be more aggressive splitting screens, rejecting screens, etc. Should use his athleticism and threat of shot to get downhill.
Does not probe or "Nash" around court. Once he gets downhill he either pulls up or goes to rim for finish.
When he gets ICED he looks to either stepback or hit the POP pass if there.
Lacks chemistry with his roller. Generally does not look to hit the roller. Mostly like to hit the POP big, and usually as a last resort.
Does not manipulate defense. Doesn't use his eyes or use headfakes.
In general misses far too many passes. Misses pocket passes, lobs, kickouts to corner, skip passes, etc.
Since he misses passes, Edwards often settles for tough pullups when his teammates are open in the corners or on the roll.
If he does make the pass the read is often late. Doe not see openings develop quickly.
Some proclivity for hitting the POP big. Was a last resort, but did find POP big after drawing two defenders and stretching them out. Must get pass to POP big quicker - right now kills dribble and then throws it.
Despite his poor passing, Edwards still has some PNR potential because he is a three-level scorer that defenders go over on, and the threat of his shotmaking draws multiple defenders.
Team Defense, Defensive Awareness
Edwards has the physical tools to be a positive team defender, but his inconsistent effort and awareness make him a negative team defender.
Poor rim protector. Either does not rotate or fails to make a good contest when he does rotate. Must be more aggressive rotating from weakside. With his strength, explosive leaping, and solid 6'9 wingspan, he has the physical tools to protect the rim - just fails to do it.
Routinely fails to play nail.
Misses tags. Unsure when to help off his man.
Does not see man-ball well.
In general, must improve at keeping his hands out. Plays with his arms at his side.
Does not box out. Sometimes comes down to help his team rebound, but is not physical enough. His DRB rate is 14.8%; should be higher at his level of athleticism.
Really nice feel for deflecting passes thrown by the man he is guarding. Great feel for when to jump.
Minor flashes of making timely rotations and generating events. Some proclivity for jumping passing lanes.
Here Edwards does not do nearly enough to protect the rim. Should be making plays with his length and frame:
Does not even think about closing out too Kentucky's Sestina, let alone stunting at him:
Closeouts
Sluggish on his closeouts. Does not contest with effort, gives up open looks. Often just runs/jogs at offensive players without using technique or having a plan to contain them.
Closeouts out off balance, with his weight leaning too far one direction.
Does not get squared up. Closes out to offensive players' hips. Must improve his angles. Gives up big driving lanes.
Must improve at KYP. Closes out too hard on non-shooters.
Too willing to bite on pumpfakes.
Has enough length and athleticism to make plays even when beat, although he does not do that often enough. Recovers quickly to get contests up when he gets pumpfaked, gets some behind-the-play blocks when blownby.
Sometimes gets his hands up to contest shots, other times keeps hands on side.
Poor technique here, jogs towards Hagans without getting in a stance or getting squared up, and gets blown by:
Off-Ball Defense
Poor off-ball defender in college.
Does not see man-ball well. Usually too focused on his man.
Loses track of shooters offball. Zones out.
Susceptible to screens. Fails to anticipate and fight through them.
Not in a stance. Relaxes and rests on heels too often. Gets caught flatfooted.
PNR Defense
Inconsistent PNR defender, but definitely has lots of potential for improvement.
With his strength + quickness combination, he could be a great switch defender. Playing in a switching system would help him, because his screen navigation is inconsistent.
Solid flashes clearing screens. He's able to get skinny, get over top, and still beat the ballhandler to the spot.
But just as often he lets himself get caught on the screen - or he isn't in a proper stance and gets caught flatfooted, allowing the ballhandler to reject the screen and blowby him. Too often he's unprepared to properly navigate the screen.
Struggles when he goes under screens. Doesn't get a good enough contest on other side. Sometimes it looks like he goes under even when the scheme calls for him to go over.
Another big issue - which will be discussed in the on-ball defense section - is that Edwards swipes at the ball a lot. When he swipes he gets himself out of position and leaves himself susceptible to blowbys. Not swiping would improve Edwards' POA defense a lot.
Mixed bag when recovering after getting beat. Goes for the poking-the-ball-away steal or a highlight block instead of getting back into the play and getting a rearview contest. Could improve here with better discipline.
Onball Defense
Mixed-bag onball, but has lots of potential. His athleticism and strength could make him a versatile and very effective on-ball defender in NBA.
Very quick and fluid hip turner when he's squared up and in a stance. Light and quick on feet when in a stance.
Very quick hands. Gets steal by getting his hands in front of a pass quicker than his man expects. Nice reflexes.
Good at contesting shots when he doesn't bite on pumpfakes. Nice length, has strength to absorb hit and still contest.
Has great sequences keeping offensive players in front.
Edwards' biggest problem is swiping. He swipes at the ball far too often, which gets him off balance and out of position. Fortunately, swiping should be an easily correctible habit.
Takes bad angles. Gives up openings for his man to drive him.
Doesn't use his strength enough. Doesn't bump offensive players on their drives.
Has mental lapses where he pressures up a non-shooter for no reason and gets burned. In general should pressure less and focus on keeping his man in front.
Quits on plays too often when's beat. Should use his athleticism to recover and make a play.
Has only average deceleration when sliding.
Should be good at post defense but isn't. Gets bodied too easily. Doesn't fight back.
With added toughness and technique should be able to guard 1-3 and some smaller 4s. Has the physical tools for defensive versatility.
The good and bad of Edwards' defense is on display here. Initially he shows the quick feet and keeps Maxey in front. But eventually he swipes at the ball and gets blown by:
When in a stance and properly engaged, Edwards is quick on his feet and capably keeps wings in front:
Edwards has some impressive flashes of on-ball defense:
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