Cassius Winston Scouting Report & Analysis

Cassius Winston's vitals:

Overview

OFFENSE

Winston is a skilled and crafty PNR operative who is also a great movement shooter that can make plays shooting, passing, or driving off screens. Winston's excellent skill and feel are limited by his poor physical tools - he is slow, not an explosive leaper, and has mediocre length.

Winston has great shooting, dribbling, and passing skills. He can score from 3 on pullups or running off movement, and he can go left or right. He's shot a blistering 43% from 3 on his career. He also has an excellent midrange pullup. Winston's handle is impressive - he has great change of pace and shiftiness, and a good arsenal of moves he can string together. Winston's a crafty, aggressive passer who can thread-the-needle and get the ball to his big men through traffic. However, Winston is just decent at hitting the corners; he's not an elite skip passer and he doesn't have a whip pass.

Winston's main offensive weaknesses are his poor finishing and general lack of athleticism. Winston shot a low percentage at the rim because he lacks the athleticism to go over defenders. He also has limited burst and quickness; he will struggle to create from a standstill against NBA defenders.

DEFENSE

Winston is a below-average defender. His limited athleticism - including slow hips and poor lateral mobility - inhibits his defensive performance, and he lacks special intensity and or instincts to compensate. Winston showed some feel for getting timely steals, but he was generally an inattentive and non-impactful team defender. Winston also got burned on closeouts due to his poor change-of-direction and deceleration ability, and he'll struggle to defend in isolation.

Winston may be passable as a PNR defender. Michigan State emphasized getting over screens, and Winston used solid technique to fight over screens.

Projections

Best case: Winston lands on a team with a creative coach that gets Winston the ball on the move. Winston is able to leverage the threat of his shot to attack a shifting defense. This helps Winston overcome his athletic limitations and be a decent playmaker. Winston is still a poor finisher, but he makes just enough floaters to keep defenses honest, and he displays a lot of creativity in finding his big men. Winston lacks elite passing to corner shooters, and he is unable to create 1-on-1 against good defenders.

Winston is a mediocre defender. Fortunately, Winston's best defensive skill, his PNR defense, is good enough to keep him on the floor, and Winston is particularly adept at executing drop coverages in which he can send ballhandlers to his big.

Winston is a solid backup guard who can help keep an offense afloat off the bench. Winston struggles to find playoff minutes, as his defensive and athletic weaknesses get exploited.

Most likely: Winston is a rotation guard who fits well on teams that run a lot of motion offense. Winston lacks the first step & burst to be a primary initiator, but he is great sprinting off screens, using DHO's, and running secondary PNRs. His off-movement shooting is a real weapon, and it creates opportunities for Winston to attack the defense. Winston struggles to make an offensive player in the playoffs when good defenses lock in and focus on guarding offball action. Defensively, Winston is poor. He is a below-average offball and onball defender. However, he guards the PNR well enough not to be a complete sieve.

Winston projects as a below-average rotation guard who can soak up some minutes for a decent-bad team, but, given his defensive and athletic limitations, Winston shouldn't be in a playoff rotation. Winston's skillset is maximized in a motion offense and in a defense that plays a drop coverage, so that Winston can simply force ballhandlers into his big man.

Worst case: Winston's shooting translates, but a lot of his creation ability stagnates. He just can't get any separation, even with the threat of his shot, and the physicality he used in college doesn't work (he gets called for offensive fouls). He's able to play some in space and pass attacking a closeout, but he's mostly limited to being a 6'2 shooter who plays offball.

Defensively, Winston struggles onball and offball. The decent PNR defense he displayed at Michigan State doesn't translate, as Winston simply lacks the athleticism to contain offensive players.

Winston is an end-of-the-rotation guard with significant limitations on both ends, although his excellent shooting at least gives teams a reason to play him.

Physical Tools

• Below-average first step. Not quick by NBA standards. Good enough to blowby some defender (given threat of his jumpshot).

• Poor acceleration. Struggles to separate from defender. Relies on off-arm to create space.

• Very slow hip turner. Does not change direction quickly on defense. Gets burned by side-to-side dribble moves.

• Poor lateral agility. Does not slide feet well. Does not keep quick players in front. Plays too upright to slide quickly. Looks stiff.

• Poor deceleration on defense. Particularly problematic on his closeouts. Offensive players go by him easily.

• Poor vertical explosiveness. Bad off one foot or two feet. Below-the-rim player. Can't jump over anyone. Completely dependent on craft, touch, and physicality for finishing. 0.1% block rate this season; 0.3% on college career. Offensive players go over him easily.

• Good shiftiness on offense (side-to-side ability, stop-starts, etc.), especially when paired with his potent pullup and handle.

• Around average to slightly below-average height for NBA point guard. 6'2 in shoes 6'4 wingspan.

• 185 lbs. Looks and plays stronger than this. Uses his physicality a lot on offense, pushes his way to rim. Underdeveloped frame. More baby fat than most NBA point guards. Should be able to gain lots of healthy muscle in a good NBA strength program.

Most of Winston's physical tools are bad. He lacks quickness, burst, and vertical explosiveness, and on defense he is slow at turning his hips, sliding his feet, and decelerating. Most players with Winston's physical tools don't succeed in the NBA. Winston's skill level is strong enough for him to carve out a rotation role in the NBA, but his physical tools likely preclude him from being an impact NBA player.

Motor, Mentality, Intangibles

• All reports of Winston's character and demeanor on and off the court are excellent. Appears universally loved.

• In general, Michigan State and Coach Izzo has a reputation for producing mature, team-first players (especially when the players are seniors).

• The family tragedy Winston endured at the beginning of the 2019-2020 season is well documented. I will not elaborate on it other than to say NBA teams must assess its impact on Winston's play this season for themselves.

• Really good working within Michigan State's set plays. Versatile player in offensive sets. Reads them well.

• As will be elaborated on, Winston is a very smart and aggressive player on offense who maximizes his limited abilities. On defense, he's prone to inattentiveness and lack of focus.

Finishing

• Poor finisher. Low percentage at rim - 51.9%.

• Finishing struggles caused by Winston's lack of burst and explosiveness. Rarely gets separation from his man, so almost always has to finish with his defender attached to his hip. And he lacks the explosiveness to jump over anyone. Every shot is tough.

• Doesn't compensate for poor finishing by getting to the line - just a 32.7 free-throw rate.

• Overly reliant on scoop layups. His shot is easily to block.

• However, Winston undeniably has some craft and skill finishing.

• Finishes with right and left hand.

• Seeks contact on his drives. Jumps into defenders. More physical than his limited physical tools would suggest. This likely won't translate to the NBA. Winston relies a lot on his off-arm to push off defenders and create space. Likely won't get the benefit of the whistle in the NBA.

• Uses little pumpfakes and headfakes around basket.

• Solid floater touch, accuracy is far from perfect, but he gets friendly bounces due to soft touch. Right hand dominant for his floaters.

Winston is a poor finisher and projects as a poor finisher in the NBA. Despite Winston's solid skill and craft at the basket, he's just too unathletic to finish well. Winston is overly reliant on using physicality, especially his off-arm, to create space, NBA defenders will be less easily moved and Winston won't get "star treatment" from the refs.

Shooting

• Excellent shooting prospect - one of the best in the class. 43.0% 3pt shooter, 84.5% free-throw shooter on college career.

• No hesitation shooting. Pulls as soon as he gets space - catch-and-shoot, off movement, and pullups. Deep range extending beyond NBA 3pt line. Can shoot moving left or right.

• Pullups going left or right. Very effective pulling up off DHOs.

• Very consistent mechanics. Mechanics don't breakdown, regardless of which direction Winston is moving. Tendency to splay his legs out when he shoots, but no apparent adverse impact on his shot.

• Gets on balance quickly, but doesn't need to be perfectly square to basket to make his shots. Can drift a bit, contort body as he shoots.

• Soft touch on jumper. Even his misses are "soft."

• Excellent movement shooter. Sprints hard off screens Gets on balance easily and quickly, hops into shot. Generally unaffected by contests.

• Not as aggressive getting to his stepback as his other shots, but still part of his arsenal. Prefers stepbacks going right. Creates a lot of separation on his stepbacks. May need to go to them more in the NBA.

• Excellent midrange pullup, especially in left elbow area. Decelerates nicely.

• Sometimes in PNR he didn't take the pullup when defense went under because he was trying to run a play. Could improve efficiency and offensive potency by just taking pullups when they're there.

Elite shooter. Very versatile jumper, pullup 3s, c-s-3s off movement, standstill shots, midrange pullups. Shoots going either direction. Michigan State ran a lot of pindown actions for Winston, and he was very effective shooting out of these. Creative NBA coaches will have fun leveraging threat of Winston's shot.

Pullup 3 from NBA range.

Movement 3 off pindown.

Midrange pullup.

Handle

• Terrific handle. Great going left and right.

• Excellent with his behind-the-back dribble going either way. Gets a lot of separation with this. Very shifty move.

• Elaborate sequences of moves. Goes through multiple options to shake defenders.

• Great hesitation dribble. Freezes defenders. Lots of little headfakes.

• Great spin move, going either direction, in paint to shake defenders.

• Great shiftiness with his handle. Very unpredictable. Knows how to keep defenders guessing, keep them off balance.

• Pairs his dribble sequences with lots of shotfakes. Really blends threat of his shot with his handle.

• A little turnover prone, 16.8% TOV rate, but not a product of his handle (more a decision-making issue, as will be discussed later) - his handle is tight.

Terrific handle. Very shifty. Gets defenders off balance. Sequences multiple moves. His handle maximizes his limited physical tools. Concern with the translatability of Winston's handle don't stem from handle itself but rather his lack of tools. Needs to push off defenders to get any separation; I don't think this will work in the NBA.

Great handle. Behind-the-back moves.

Passing

• Very good passer.

• Aggressive passer. Creative, willing to pass through/into crowds. Risk-taker.

• Hit roll men even when defenders are tagging them. Nice precision. Gutsy.

• Good vision when in paint and even under basket. Sees through crowds. Makes a lot of dumpoff passes.

• Great at getting ball to bigs. Artful pocket passes for short roll, very good accuracy on lobs, good visions for dumpoffs.

• Uses a lot of wraparound passes. Unpredictable angles.

• Sees both corners. Generally needs overhead, two-hand pass to hit weakside, but some flashes of whip passes with his right hand.

• Excellent transition passer. Great feel for look-ahead passes. Threads the needle through multiple defenders. Passes teammates open.

• Unselfish passer. Makes lots of little passes that set up positive plays.

• Passes on the move. Passes out of spin moves in paint. Special poise.

• Uses lots of little shotfakes to setup his passes. Keeps defenses guessing.

• Uses both hands but more versatile with right. Mostly throws easy pocket passes and dumpoffs with left. More utility with left will help him hit tight passing windows in NBA.

• Deceptive passer with his weird angles and little headfakes, but issues with telegraphing passes still pop up.

• Turnover prone. 16.8% TOV rate this season; 18.6% on his career. Forces difficult passes and is very aggressive. Leads to a fairly high turnover rate. Less of an accuracy issue than an issue of forcing passes through crowds.

Very good passer. Exceptionally good at finding big men off the roll and in the paint, but hits corners as well. Excellent transition passer, unselfish, hits ahead, phenomenal accuracy and touch threading the needle. I suspect the effectiveness of Winston's passing will be marginally diminished in the NBA; Winston stands out at sneaking passes into paint and crowds, but this is a little less important in the 4-out NBA. More of a premium on hitting corners/whip passes in NBA, which is not a standout skill for Winston.

Great vision for dump-off pass.

Pick and Roll Offense

• Very good PNR player.

• Excellent work screening and re-screening. Gives it to screener and then sprints into DHO with momentum towards basket. Lots of tricks to get open.

• Very shifty and manipulative PNR player. Keeps defenses guessing.

• Excellent pocket passer with right or left hand. Michigan State's big man, Xavier Tillman, is a terrific short-roll player, and Winston was great at getting him the ball with pocket passes.

• Uses screens well. Runs shoulder-to-shoulder with his big. Good patience setting them up.

• Deliberate in PNR. Goes through multiple reads.

• Great chemistry with Tillman in PNR. Hit Tillman for lobs as soon as he slip screen. Nice timing.

• Good at snaking screens. Uses his heft to get defenders in jail.

• Some trouble handling hedge coverage, especially against large defenders. Slow navigating hedges; takes him a while to dribble out of them. Too often goes backwards and picks up ball. Especially susceptible to defenders who use active hands to take away his passing angles.

Winston was a great, crafty PNR player in college. His effectiveness will reduce in the NBA because with his subpar burst and quickness, it will be harder for him to get into the paint and make plays. However, Winston could look good playing for a team that can get the defense shifting from side to side before Winston starts his PNR (which will make it easier for Winston to gain separation).

Great patience going through screen and rescreen.

Creation, Feel, IQ

• Excellent working within play sets. Michigan State ran many different options for him: DHOs, staggers, pindowns, etc. So versatile coming off these plays. Exceptional at leveraging the threat of his shot and passing. A creative coach could have a lot of fun with Winston's offensive skills.

• Aggressive attacking weak defenders. Drives bigs, poor perimeter defenders.

• Uses strength and shiftiness to get to spots. Very physical. Initiates contact against defender. This will work less in the NBA. Pushoffs with his off arm are too obvious. Won't get benefit of the whistle.

• Great screen setter. Will fit nicely into different screening actions in the NBA.

• Not a perfect decision-maker. Misses passes. Weird turnovers driving into crowds. A little inconsistent.

Winston likely lacks the athleticism to create from a standstill against NBA athletes, but he should have success playing in a system offense that leverages the threat of Winston's shot and gets defenses shifting.

Powers his way to rim. Pushes off with forearm.

Team Defense, Defensive Awareness

• Generally an inattentive and low impact team defender.

• Lack of aggressiveness in his defensive rotations. Usually doesn't try to generate steals, get deflections, etc. Passive. Not a substantial impediment to the offense. 2.1% steal rate; 0.1% block rate.

• Flashes of good instincts for generating steals and making impactful rotations. Particularly aggressive going after bigs. But inconsistent aggressiveness pursuing steals and high-level rotations.

• Misses a lot of rotations to the basket.

• Must be more active and keep his arms out.

• Lack of physical tools to be effective. Hard to make an impact with below-average quickness, explosiveness, length, etc.

• Poor rebounder, (7.1% DRB) but boxes out more than some guards. Especially on a switch, eager to compete against larger opponent.

Flashes of solid instincts, and comes up with some timely steals, but projects as a negative team defender in the NBA - lacks length, athleticism, intensity, special instincts.

Poor concentration and effort in transition defense. Doesn't even try to bump Maryland big man Jalen Smith.

Closeouts

• Bad closeout player. Lacks deceleration, lateral quickness, hip turning, and length. Poor tools.

• Prone to getting blownby, even with proper technique. Can't turn hips quick enough to keep anyone in front.

Winston gets blown by pretty easily on this closeout.

Off-ball Defense

• Winston ball watches too much. Offensive players frequently backdoor him.

• Typically smart about knowing the limitations of his man. Aggressively helps off non-shooters.

• Ok navigating screens, sometimes gets clipped by a screen, but usually doesn't get screened off entirely.

• Winston lacks the athleticism to be anything more than mediocre at offball defense.

Pick and Roll Defense

• Winston fought hard to get through screens. Clearing screens emphasized by Michigan State.

• Generally good technique clearing screens. Jumps into the ballhandler and stays attached. Some issues with getting feet crossed.

• Good job "feeling" screens. Seldom caught off guard. Prepared to defend the action.

• Some issues getting skinny. Let himself get clipped by screens he could have avoided if he contorted his body a little more.

• Not quick enough to beat offensive player to the spot. But knows how to channel the offensive player into the help.

• Doesn't apply pressure to ballhandler. Doesn't apply pressure at POA.

• Can take some hits. Not a pushover battling for position.

• Struggles to get back into play if he gets caught on screen. Lacks requisite quickness and length. Doesn't get up good rearview contests. Relied a lot on his teammate Xavier Tillman to cover for him.

Winston lacks the physical abilities to be an impactful PNR defender, but he could be ok in a conservative drop system in which he can force ballhandlers to big. Winston fights hard to get over screens and takes PNR defense seriously.

Gets feet crossed, but applies solid effort getting over screen.

On-Ball Defense

• Projects as a poor isolation defender in the NBA.

• Limited physical tools. Slow hip turner. Slow laterally. Usually gets beat after multiple moves. Lacks the length and leaping to bother shots.

• Flashes of competency in isolation defense. At least competes. Some flashes keeping NBA-level point guards like Tre Jones in front. But can't do much when offensive player goes over top of him.

• Best defensive attribute is his strength. Not a chiseled frame by any means, but not a pushover. Handles hits by offensive players. Doesn't get dislodged right away. However, Winston was a senior playing against generally younger players. He won't have a significant strength advantage in most NBA matchups.

• Upright defender. Stiff. Trouble getting in stance. Not spry enough to contain kick guards, not big enough to guard slower players.

• Limited switchability. Can't guard up.

Winston projects as a poor on-ball defender. He is too slow to guard quick guards, and isn't long enough to guard bigger players.

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