Devon Dotson: NBA Draft Scouting Report & Analysis

Devon Dotson's vitals:

Overview

OFFENSE

Facilitating point guard with great quickness and burst. Game is predicated on drive-and-kick ability. Finishing skill and craft should make Dotson a good finisher in the NBA, although he'll have to pick his spots; 6'2 with just decent vertical explosion - not dunking on anyone in traffic. Good passing vision. Sees both corners. Passing craft and ability to manipulating defense is average.

Biggest weakness is his shooting. 33.2% 3pt shooter in two years at Kansas. Teams generally dared him to shoot. Limited pullup shooter.

Can he shoot well enough to make his driving game viable?

DEFENSE

Excellent lateral mobility. Very quick feet. Keeps offensive players in front when in a stance. Excellent, quick hands. High steal rate. With improved ball pressure and consistency in getting over screens, Dotson could be an above-average POA defender in NBA.

Below-average team defense. Not egregious, but generally prioritizes his individual defense over team defense. Lacks size to be an impact team defender. Will derive value mostly as a POA defender in NBA.

Projections for NBA Impact & Role

Best case: Dotson shoots pullup 3s on good enough volume and efficiency to get defenses to go over in PNR. Defenses going over screens unlocks Dotson's drive-and-kick game. Dotson gets into the lane with his quickness and passes well to both corners. However Dotson's reads remain a little route and predictable to the best defenses. Passing utility limited by lack of one-handed whip passes. Dotson's finishing keep defenses honest, defenses cannot play him just for the pass. Dotson's midranger develops into an ok weapon, but it is never good enough to hurt defenses with. Dotson also brings value with his excellent transition game, and his speed in the halfcourt makes it difficult for teams to switch centers and big forwards onto him.

Dotson also makes stationary catch-and-shoot 3s at a good clip. Teams have to close him out, and Dotson excels at attacking those closeouts and making plays in the lane. Enough shooting to play alongside other initiators. Dotson never becomes a movement shooting threat.

Defensively, Dotson embraces a POA, ball-pressure defense role. He improves his consistency and effort at getting over ball screens, and due to his excellent lateral mobility and quick hands, Dotson effectively hounds other point guards. His quickness also helps him on offball defense, and Dotson blows up a lot of DHOs.

Dotson's team defense is average for a point guard. He knows where to be and doesn't make egregious mistakes, but he also lacks the size and intensity to be impactful. Dotson is strictly a one-position defender, and his limited switchability limits the defensive versatility of his team.

Dotson projects as a capable starter. He can be the primary initiator for an average to below-average offense, but he can also fit his game alongside other initiators and play a substantial role on a good team.

Most likely: Dotson occasionally takes and makes pullup 3s, but defenses still go under against him. This limits, but does not destroy, the effectiveness of Dotson's drive-and-kick game. He still gets into the paint thanks to his burst and clever use of screen rejections and screen/re-screen actions. Dotson's finishing percentage declines from college, but he still has enough finishing craft, and gets to the line enough, to be a factor. His midrange pullup game is ineffective and defenses sag off him in the paint. Due to his pullup limitations, Dotson is best suited as a primary initiator of bench units. He makes enough open catch-and-shoot 3s to be guarded, and, on the right team he works as a starter alongside other initiators.

Dotson is an average defender. Has the tools to be a good POA defender, but he doesn't bring enough consistency and intensity to be elite. But holds his own, and his quick hands help him maintain a good steal rate. His team defense is fine in the regular season, but his effectiveness drops off a little in the playoffs when teams headhunt him.

Dotson's best role is as the first guard off-the-bench, capable of keeping a second-unit offense afloat and playing a complementary role alongside better teammates.

Worst case: Dotson regresses as a shooter. He's a reluctant and inefficient pullup shooter. His catch-and-shoot 3 is slow and lacks utility, and he only shoots in the low 30s. Teams don't close him out hard. Dotson's still effective as an energy guard that pushes the pace in transition and takes advantage of defenses unprepared for his speed. He still make plays when he gets to the lane, but his lack of shooting detracts from his team's offense. Dotson's rim-finishing efficiency doesn't translate to the NBA, as too many of his shots get blocked by NBA-level rim protectors, and he lacks the length and vertical pop to compensate.

Defensively, Dotson is an inconsistent POA defender who makes plays by generating steals but also struggles to consistently get over screens. The rest of his defense is below average.

Dotson is an energy guard off the bench who struggles to contribute in the playoffs.

Physical Tools

• Excellent first step. Only quick guards or premier wing defenders can keep chance of Dotson in front.

• Great burst. Once Dotson has a step he is likely at the basket. Easily accelerates past defenders.

• Great open court speed. So fast, hard to contain him without a careful team effort.

• Good leaper, not an above-the-rim player, but good at leaping off one foot and doesn't require load time. Solid hang time, can stay in the air and contort his body on finishes.

• Solid shiftiness and change of direction ability on offense. Nothing elite, but effective when coupled with his great quickness and burst.

• Great lateral mobility for defense. Very quick sliding his feet, most offensive players have trouble getting by Dotson without a screen.

• Solid hip quickness. Not elite at turning, but almost always able to stay attached to his man and slide back into the play.

• Below-average deceleration on defense. Dotson, more often than expected for a great athlete, loses his balance and stumbles on closeouts or when an offensive player stops quickly.

• Incredibly quick hands. As will be discussed, Dotson has a great steal rate. His fast hands are a big reason why.

• Latest measurement (from 2017) lists Dotson as 6'2 in shoes with a 6'3.25 wingspan and a 7'11.5 standing reach. Looks smaller than 6'2. Dotson finished well in college, but he's vulnerable to shotblocking.

• 185 lbs. Solid strength and frame. Won't get pushed around by other point guards. Decent ability to power through contact at the rim. Embraces physicality.

Dotson has great quickness and burst. Most guards struggle to stay in front of him and most bigs struggle to contain him. Dotson's fantastic hands help him generate many steals. Below-average height and length are his main weaknesses.

Quickness. Burst. In-out dribble. Dotson is jersey #1.

Mentality, Intangibles, Context

• Dotson's team, Kansas, was arguably the best team in college basketball, with a 28-3 record.

• Dotson is a pass-first player. He embraced facilitating for his talented teammates, and seemed like a team-first player.

• Dotson's drive-and-kick ability fuelled Kansas' offense. However, with dominant post player Udoka Azubuike and potent secondary creator Marcus Garrett, Dotson had lots of help driving the offense.

• Played engaged on both ends of the court.

• Kansas ran lots of weave action, and its defensive system relied heavily on switching.

Finishing

• Excellent finisher in college. Shot 64.8% at rim this season, 61.8% last season.

• Dotson's strong finishing is predicated on his blow-by speed. Usually gets by his defender and only has a lone big to finish over.

• Seeks out contact. Fearless mentality. Not afraid of shot blockers.

• His physicality gets him to the line a lot - 44.0% FTA rate.

• Good vertical athleticism. Not an above the rim-finisher, but good leaping off one foot. Generates good hangtime. Sometimes goes to a hop step and jumps off two feet, but generally appears most comfortable leaping with left foot.

• Craft around basket is good - not great. Uses his body as a shield. Some variety in his finishes. Prefers scoop layups.

• Solid touch off the glass. A few ugly bricks, but generally gets good spin on the ball.

• Right-hand dominant finisher. Flashes with left, but too often Dotson goes to his right hand when he should be using his left (like for example, when the defense is on the right-hand side of Dotson's body).

• Lack of size shows: based on eye-test, Dotson got a relatively high amount of shots blocked.

• Fledgling floater game. Some nice makes, especially off hop step. But not a consistent weapon yet.

Dotson projects as a good NBA finisher. Dotson's excellent college finishing is predicated on his speed. He's usually going 1-on-1 or 1-on-0 at the rim. Dotson has solid but unspectacular craft. When Dotson encounters better rim protectors in the NBA, developing a left hand will be important for not getting shot blocked. Physicality and high FTA rate will help Dotson maintain finishing efficiency in the NBA.

Look at his acceleration. And the hopstep to get into the lane.

Doesn't go to left hand for finishing. Misses badly with right hand because Herro could get a contest, easier finish with left hand. Should initiate contact against Herro too - not just fade away.

Shooting

• Currently a reluctant shooter.

• 30.9% 3pt shooter on 4.7 attempts per game this season. However, Dotson shot 33.2% 3pt shooter on 3.2 attempts per game over his career. 80.8% from free-throw line on college career.

• Overall, Dotson's shooting numbers are unimpressive, but they do not preclude Dotson from becoming a decent shooter.

• Dotson often hesitates when shooting open catch-and-shoots 3s.

• Generally does not take pullup 3-pointers (unless he has a lot of space and time to take them).

• Defenders sag off Dotson, partially due to fear of Dotson's speed, but also because of a general lack of concern for Dotson's three-point shot.

• Right-handed shooter.

• Dotson's shooting mechanics and form are not broken. Main issues are elbow flare with off-arm, apparent lack of power generation through legs (Dotson misses short a lot), and an overall slow shot.

• None of those shooting flaws are irredeemable, NBA teams have decent chance at improving Dotson's shot.

• Not a movement shooter. Stationary catch-and-shoot or 1-dribble pullup.

• Poor midrange jumper. Made only 24.3% this season, 20.5% last season. Reluctant to take it. NBA teams will likely drop bigs against Dotson and dare him to take the jumper.

• Generally takes midrangers after 1 dribble to basket out of PNR (especially against ICE coverage). Looks rigid. Doesn't shoot with momentum going to rim.

Dotson is currently a limited shooter. Defenses give Dotson a lot of space to shoot 3s, and Dotson's percentages are mediocre. Unlikely to develop potent pullup (from 3 or midrange).

Good free-throw percentage and non-broken form suggest Dotson can improve his shooting - at least enough to force closeouts.

Open catch-and-shoot 3 from top of key. Notice Dotson's reluctance to take it. A little bit of a two-part shot; one action to get to head, another for release. Appears to have elbow flare on both arms. I like the wrist action and follow through. Feet look a little too close together. Knees bending inwards.

Handle

• Good handle.

• Some impressive dribbling sequences. Likes the left-to-right behind the back into a spin to his right.

• Excellent in-out dribble, especially with his left hand. Can sequence it into crossovers or a nice hop step.

• Effective crossovers. Handle is high, but he creates a lot of space. Crossover style pairs well with his acceleration.

• Really nice hang dribble.

• A little sloppy with his handle. Handle gets away on him in traffic sometimes. Less of an issue in college because he created so much separation with his handle.
  

Passing

• Best passing skill is that he sees either corner on his drive.

• Generally needs to jump and pass with two-hands to get ball to weakside, but he's shown flashes of weakside whip passes with his right hand.

• Passing game isn't advance, usually just reads the collapsing defense and hits the corners.

• Average ability for hitting roll men and feeding bigs. Some accuracy issues on lobs and passing over the top. Not an issue with Azubuike due to Azubuike's large catch radius, but Dotson struggled getting the ball to the less long and bouncy David McCormack.

• Made some nice dump off passes but generally looking to pass over top the defense.

• Dotson's passes are typically telegraphed. He looks at his targets, and it's fairly easy for the defense to read. Given that he usually jumps to pass, it renders his kickouts to the corner vulnerable to steals.

Good vision, adept at seeing weakside corner. Dotson's propensity for hitting the corners pairs well with his speed. Good drive-and-kick game. Telegraphs passes and usually makes basic reads. Can he improves the craft and unpredictability of his passes?

This should be a left-handed pass to shooter. Needs to get quicker at passing for NBA defenses, cannot take the time to turn around.

Pick and Roll Offense

• Good PNR game with his drive-and-kick ability.

• If defenses chased him over the top, he can almost always make a play in the lane (either finishing or kicking to a shooter).

• Decent pocket-passer with either hand. Especially effective last season with playmaking big Dedric Lawson. Effective counter to ICE coverage.

• Obvious threat to Dotson's PNR game is when defenders go under the screen and dare him to pullup.

• Dotson countered this coverage by rejecting the screen using his speed, or playing a screen/rescreen game closer to basket once defender went under.

• Kansas ran nice weave action that got defense shifting before going into Dotson-Azubuike ball screens. Made it harder for defenses to go under.

• Dotson negates most switching defensive schemes. Can't switch 1-5 ball screens against Dotson (and probably most 1-4), Dotson's speed burns bigs.

• Once Dotson gets down hill in the PNR, he wants to get to rim or kickout. Doesn't play with much pace. Doesn't put defenders in jail or snake.

• His PNR game is effective but predictable.

Dotson is a good PNR player who uses his speed to get into the lane and drive-and-kick or finish. Dotson will be susceptible to teams that go under against him, although he has some effective counters that suggest he can maintain effective even when teams go under.

Creation, Feel, IQ

• Dotson projects as an initiator because he is so quick that it is hard to keep him out of the lane, and he makes good plays once he's in the lane

• Dotson plays with solid feel and IQ. He reads defenses to find the open man, and he possesses a good understanding of his strengths; he knows he needs to play downhill.

• Neither makes advanced reads nor manipulates the defense. He's a good player who uses his speed effectively, but he's not a savant.

• Dotson's creation is buoyed by his lightning-quick transition game. Teams need to make a point of getting multiple defenders back to stop Dotson from getting to the rim.

Dotson should be more aggressive getting to rim here. Despite Herro and Quickly are covering him, Dotson has the speed to blow by them on the baseline, especially since they were off balance.

Team Defense, Defensive Awareness

• Dotson displays a functional understanding of team defense and generally plays within the team concept, however, he is more focused on individual defense than team defense.

• His demeanor on team defense is too casual. Plays with arms at his side, and he is not as vocal as a point guard should be. Needs to talk more on defense (this manifests in transition, where sometimes Dotson doesn't clearly communicate which offensive player he's picking up).

• Doesn't try to protect the rim. Not an above-the-rim player, but does't even try to use verticality. Doesn't try to take charges either. Will have to learn to at least take charges in the NBA.

• Makes dig-ins more than tags. Likes plays where he has opportunity to get a steal.

• Doesn't always stunt with conviction. Does the bare minimum too often.

• Sometimes is a little too "me" focused on team defense. Only rotates unless it's clearly necessary.

• High steal rate (3.5%), but most of them come through man defense or from blowing up passes to his man. Generally doesn't make steals by playing passing lanes.

• Keeps head on swivel. Good at seeing man-ball.

• Small size limits his overall utility and effectiveness on team defense.

• Competes on glass. Doesn't always box out, but at least comes down to help out with rebounding. It's important for Dotson to rebound so that he can spark his team's transition offensive.

Dotson was a fine team defender in college. However, he prioritized man and off-ball defense over team defense. Dotson benefited from playing in a Kansas system with elite defenders, a switch-heavy scheme, and a dominant rim protector in Udoka Azubuike. Dotson's team defense will likely look worse in the rotation-heavy NBA.

Makes the rotation eventually and doesn't get burned, but should have come down to takeaway Kentucky big Reid Travis as soon as his teammates doubled Kentucky big PJ Washington.

Dotson's too late taking away pass to big.

Closeouts

• Excellent at generating steals on closeouts. Dotson closes quickly on his man and uses quick hands to get a steal while his man is gathering the ball. Generates more events off closeouts than most players.

• Otherwise, Dotson's closeout effectiveness is limited by his lack of length, which makes it hard to get a good contest.

• Dotson sometimes fails to closeout in a stance, which makes him susceptible to blowbys.

• He also has relatively poor deceleration (in particular has balance problems off deceleration) and sometimes stumbles while closing out.

• When Dotson closes out in a proper stance, his quick feet and excellent lateral mobility make it hard for his man to get by him.

Off-Ball Defense

• Projects as a good off-ball defender.

• Very deadly at generating steals. Blows up a lot of dribble handoffs with his quick hands.

• Sees man-ball. Rarely gets back doored. Tracks movement well.

• Sometimes relaxes too much. Minor tendency to rest on his heels. Keeps arms at side too much. Must play with active hands.

• Plays too upright, needs to consistently stay in stance.

• Kansas switched most off-ball screens, negating the need for Dotson to get over screens.

• When he did go have to fight through off-ball screens, Dotson's decisions didn't always match the man he was guarding. For example, he toplocked Baylor's Davion Mitchell. Conventional wisdom says it's better to go under against Mitchell, an explosive athlete who wields a shaky jumper.

• Has the tools to get over screens. Quick feet, can get skinny, physical enough to fight through contact.

Dotson has the tools to be a good off-ball defender. He got a lot of steals with his quick hands off DHOs and other attempts to get the ball to his man. Dotson must demonstrate consistent technique and keep himself in a stance.

On-Ball Defense

• Great lateral mobility. Keeps offensive players in front. Very difficult to get around.

• Fundamentally sound with lateral slides. Doesn't cross feet.

• Quick feet and reaction times. As long as he's in a stance, he's not getting blown by. Light on feet.

• If he gets beat, his best option is to poke the ball from behind. Not putting rearview contests up.

• Hip quickness is just decent, but his lateral sliding is good enough to compensate. Can slide his way back into play even if he's a beat late turning.

• Excellent hands. 3.5% steal rate. Very disruptive, especially when his man brings the ball up to pass or shoot.

• Typically smart about getting steals. Takes calculated gambles. Usually doesn't let himself get out of position.

• Some deceleration issues. Seems to lose balance when his man stops and starts. Generally recovers, but doesn't possess the balance and fluidity of defensive greats.

• If he gets blown by, it's because of his tendency to relax in his stance.

• Limited ability to contest. Doesn't have the length.

• Lack of height and length limits his switchability. Bigger players go over him. Best served defending ones. Perhaps he could use his quickness to pressure up initiating twos.

• May want to increase ball pressure even more at NBA level. His quickness and fast hands are his best defensive attributes; he should embrace them. Right now he's a relatively conservative defender who picks his spots for steals and focuses on keeping his man in front.

Very good man defender, with potential to get better. Quick hands and excellent lateral mobility make him simultaneously disruptive and hard to get by. Needs to consistently stay in defensive stance. Could his defense be unlocked further in a role where he applies POA pressure?

Pick and Roll Defense

• Makes it hard for ballhandlers to use screen. Quick feet, excellent lateral mobility, great hands. Dotson has lots of tools to disrupt PNR ball handlers.

• Kansas didn't emphasize getting over ball screens as much as most NBA teams do. For example, Dotson frequently went under against Baylor's pullup threat Jared Butler, and Kansas' coaching staff seemed fine with that.

• Kansas switched on ball screens (sometimes even 1-4 and 1-5). Not much pressure on Dotson to get over screens.

• Usually looked good getting over screens when he tried. Got skinny. Didn't cross his feet.

• Must improve at jumping into the ballhandler to get over screens. Leaves too much of a gap.

• Dies on screens too often. Doesn't always fight to get over.

• Must apply more pressure against ballhandler. Gives up passing lanes.

• ICE coverage needs work. Leaves too much room between himself and the ballhandler. Gives ballhandler gap to get middle.

Dotson has the potential to be a good PNR defender in the NBA. He has quickness to disrupt ballhandlers and stay attached to them while going over top screens. Dotson must commit to consistently pressuring ballhandlers and chasing them over screens.

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