LaMelo Ball: NBA Draft Scouting Report & Analysis
- Nick Heintzman
- Aug 3, 2020
- 18 min read
LaMelo Ball projects as a primary initiator with the potential to be an all-star and the second best player on a championship level team.
To reach this conclusion, my scouting report proceeds in three parts: 1) a general introduction to LaMelo Ball and his journey through highschool and international play; 2) my projection of what Ball can be in the NBA; and 3) a detailed scouting report which breaks down every part of Ball's game.
PART I: INTRODUCING LAMELO BALL
Vitals:
LaMelo Ball found fame early in his life. As a highschool freshman, LaMelo played on the same highschool team, Chino Hills, as his older brothers LiAngelo and Lonzo Ball. Chino Hills drew mixtape applause thanks to its run-N-gun style and the passing and shooting audacity of the Ball brothers. The Ball brothers threw full-court outlet passes and bombed 3s from 30 feet. Between the unique playstyle, the outspoken nature of their father, Lavar Ball, and some aggressive marketing, the Ball brothers became celebrities: LaMelo Ball currently has 5.5 million instagram followers, and he has yet to play in the NBA.
The fame and exposure at such a young age in his basketball development likely touted the perception many have of LaMelo. For most fans and NBA decision-makers, their earliest memories of LaMelo are from when he was a scrawny 5-10 14-year-old who launched 3s with weird form and unapologetic shot selection (note that in this clip and all subsequent clips LaMelo wears jersey #1):
Fast forward 4 years to the present, and a lot has changed about LaMelo. He spent his teenage years on an incredible basketball odyssey. He launched halfcourt shots at Chino Hills in his sophomore season. He played - too much criticism and scrutiny - professionally in Lithuania during what should have been his junior season of highschool. And, after his Lithuanian adventure, LaMelo returned to the US to play his senior season of basketball at the Spire Institute in Ohio. At Spire, LaMelo emerged as a tremendously talented tall point guard (he's currently listed at 6'7 195lbs), in which he tantalized with his incredible passing and dribbling, while also displaying some of the worst defense ever seen in highschool basketball. By the end of his highschool career, LaMelo was a 5-star prospect and regarded as a potential top 3 pick in the 2020 draft.
Here's a sample of LaMelo's sophomore-season shot selection:
And here's some of the exciting potential LaMelo showed at Spire - look at his passing:
LaMaelo eschewed college basketball, and instead spent the past season in Australia's National Basketball League (NBL), playing for the Illawarra Hawks. The NBL, known for its physical style of play, is one of the better professional basketball leagues in the world. LaMelo appeared in 12 regular season games for the Hawks and played well - posting averages of 17 points, 7.6 rebounds, 7 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.1 blocks, and 2.5 turnovers in 31 minutes a game. Similar to highschool, LaMelo dazzled with his passing, dribbling, and creativity, but struggled with shot selection and poor defense. And although LaMelo played well as an individual, his team posted a 3-9 record.
LaMelo has had one of the unique journeys of any draft prospect, and it is difficult to separate LaMelo the basketball player from LaMelo the teenage celebrity. However, the film indicates that LaMelo is the most talented player in this draft, with the potential to be a primary initiator for NBA offenses.
PART II: PROJECTING BALL TO THE NBA
LaMelo Ball projects as a primary initiator in the NBA. He's 6'7 with great point guards skills: his passing is incredible, his handle is very good, and he has solid PNR craft. Although Ball scored inefficiently throughout his career, if he develops well he should average 20PPG on decent efficiency. Defensively, Ball projects as a poor onball defender, but he could be a decent team defender. In sum, Ball projects as the second best player on a championship level team, but he must be paired with a dominant scoring wing to maximize his team's outcome.
I will now assess Ball's current strengths and whether they can translate to the NBA. Then I will analyze his current weaknesses and consider the extent to which they will hinder him in the NBA.
STRENGTHS
Ball's strengths are his incredible passing, great dribbling at 6'7, and PNR play.
Ball's passing is special - he should enter the NBA and immediately be one of the best passers. Ball is an instinctive, creative, and anticipatory passer. He doesn't just pass to open teammates, he passes teammates open. He has a special ability to pass his roll men open, or to draw the defense just enough to create an open look for a teammate. And Ball is an incredibly versatile passer - he can pass off the dribble with either hand, and he can hit rollers, shooters, and poppers from a variety of angles.
Here's a great behind-the-back pass to hit the roller. Very creative:
Ball is great at live-dribble passing. Here he hits the shooter:
Ball always knows where teammates are, even when he's driving. Here he finds the POP big:
Ball is great at using deception to get his passes through tight windows:
Ball uses his eyes to keep the defense guessing. This is an incredible no-look pass to the shooter:
Here's another great bit of deception, this time to the roll man:
Ball's other great strength is his handle: he has a elite handle for a 6'7 player, and his handle is above average for most point guards regardless of height. Ball's handle is creative and effective. He has a very unpredictable behind-the-back move that beats most defenders and is hard to stop. He also has a great hesitation move that he uses to freeze defenders and get into the paint. Ball can go either direction and he stays under control - he dribbles through tight spaces without turning it over - and the fact that he only posted 2.4 turnovers/game while initiating his team's offense in the NBL at 6'7 is impressive.
This behind-the-back sequence into the pass is my favorite play from any prospect this year:
Ball uses the hesitation dribble very effectively to setup his drives:
The strength of Ball's passing and dribbling means that he should be a good shot creator in the NBA - so long as his physical tools are good enough. Ball has a decent first step and ok vertical explosion. However, in the NBL he sometimes struggled to create in isolation. Too often he danced aimlessly on defenders and could not create separation. Unless Ball becomes a lethal stepback shooter, he needs screens to win in the NBA. Fortunately,Ball is a heady PNR player. Even if teams go under against him, he can still get into the lane with rescreens. The only defensive coverage Ball should have trouble against are switching schemes; Ball likely is not athletic enough to beat the NBA's best perimeter defenders one-on-one. This is why I project Ball to be the second best player on a good team; he'll likely need a dominant scorer to carry his team against the toughest defenses.
WEAKNESSES
Ball's current weaknesses are his 1) scoring inefficiency; and 2) poor defense. In the NBL, Ball shot only 25% from 3 and 45.8% from 2, with an overall FG% of 37.5%. Some of the scoring inefficiency is explained by Ball's poor shot selection; he attempted 6.7 3s per game, many of which were deep pullup attempts early in the shotclock. Another source of Ball's inefficiency is his unorthodox form: both his elbows flare and he shoots the ball from the left side of his face.
Here's a taste of the poor shot selection:
There are reasons for hope with respect to Ball's shooting. Ball can easily improve his efficiency by reducing the amount of difficult attempts he takes. And it's possible that a smart NBA team can improve Ball's form and overall shooting ability. Ball also looks comfortable shooting midrange pullups - particularly out of PNR. Finally, in a limited sample, Ball showed some promise as a catch-and-shoot player. Per Spencer Pearlman of the Stepien, Ball was in the 67%ile for C&S looks in the NBL. On tape, Ball looked comfortable shooting off the catch from a standstill and from small movement. I predict that Ball will hit just enough pullups to encourage team's to contest his shots. And I also think he will shoot well enough offball to force closeouts and get guarded. However, I don't think Ball will shoot well enough from 3 to be a truly elite scorer.
Another source of Ball's inefficiency was his inconsistent finishing. Ball still has a thin frame (listed at 6'7; 195lbs), and he avoided contact at the rim. He didn't get to the FT line much, and settled for tough floaters when another dribble would have got him to the rim.On the positive, Ball has good finishing touch with either hand, and he is excellent with his floater. Ball has room to add good amounts of his muscle to his frame, and the added strength should make him - at minimum - an average finisher.
Ball has nice soft touch on his finishes:
But he settles for the floater too often. He lacks the physicality and toughness to go all the way to the rim, even when he has a clear driving lane:
Finally, Ball has been a poor defender throughout his career. In his senior season of highschool, Ball may have been the worst defender I ever scouted. On most possessions he did not play defense, choosing instead to stand in one spot with his hands at his side. He almost never made any rotations, and he rarely took more than a few steps on defense.
Ball walked on transition defense, failed to contain on the perimeter (notice the low-effort swipe at the ball in the second sequence), and even spent defensive possessions adjusting his shorts:
In the NBL, Ball was still a poor defender, but his improvements from highschool were dramatic. Ball actually made rotations and displayed a surprisingly decent understanding of team defense. He had numerous sequences where he made multiple rotations - playing the block and then sprinting out to shooters. He also showed good instincts for getting steals - he jumped lots of passing lanes. Ball still struggled with many elements of team defense - failing to track shooters offball, missing tags, etc. - but his struggles were those of most teenagers playing professional basketball. Given Ball's massive leap in defensive performance from highschool to the NBL, I predict he can develop into an average team defender.
Here are two examples of Ball being engaged on defense and making plays:
Onball, LaMelo struggled - but most of this was due to lack of strength. He played against older and stronger players in the NBL, and he struggled to clear screens and stop offensive players from powering through him. However, Ball flashed solid lateral quickness and good feet. Ball will never be a stopper, but if his strength improves as I expect it will, he should be a competent defender that doesn't get headhunted.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS FOR BALL'S PROJECTIONS
Apart from my analysis of Ball's strengths and weaknesses, I want to make two more points about Ball's projection to the NBA.
First, Ball has a very rare and unique skillset. He's 6'7, and he has the passing and dribbling ability to create for teammates and get his own shot. This skillset is incredibly rare. Here's a list of 6'6-6'8 players in the NBA this season who sustained usage rates above 20% and averaged 4 or more assists per game (LeBron James is listed at 6'9 on basketball reference, which is why he's not on this list):
These players range from superstars to - at worst - 6th men. There is a very obvious demand in the NBA for players with Ball's skillset. Given the rarity of Ball's talent, the likelihood of him being - at minimum - a good starter is high.
Second, as I've already mentioned, Ball is on a positive development arch. I've already discussed his defensive improvements. But Ball's also made tremendous physical improvements. At the age of 14 he was only 5'10. Ball now stands 6'7 and weighs 195 lbs with a frame he can add more mass to. Given Ball's physical growth in recent years, it's possible he could end up at something like 6'8 215lbs. A player of that size with Ball's vision and creativity is special.
Ball has also improved his capacity for teamplay. Throughout highschool it was unclear if Ball prioritized highlight plays over team success. In the NBL, Ball did a good job playing a team game. He looked very good in PNR and consistently created good looks for his teammates. Although his shot selection still must improve, Ball is on the right track.
For all these reasons, I predict Ball will be an All-star and one of the 20-25 best players in the NBA.
PART III: DETAILED SCOUTING REPORT
Physical Tools
Good first step and quickness. Not lightning quick but certainly quick enough to get by defenders if they guard him closely.
Mediocre acceleration. Not terrible, but lacks the burst where he instantly separates from defenders on his drives.
Ok vertical explosiveness. Decent one-foot leaper. Not going to dunk on defenders', but he gets a decent amount of half courts dunks because he gets up quickly off one foot.
Poor explosiveness off two feet. Not much lift, leaves some finishes short because he does not get up high enough.
Nice deceleration and change of direction ability. Still learning to play with more pace, but stops quickly when he decides to. Breaks some ankles because he is shifty.
Solid lateral quickness. Slides pretty well, covers ground quickly with his slides
When prepared and in a stance, he's very light and quick on his feet.
Plays too upright (on defense especially). High center of gravity and looks uncomfortable getting into a stance. Appears to have flexibility problems.
Ok hip turner. When's he in a stance he looks reasonably fluid and quick turning his hips.
Great size for an initiator. Listed at 203 centimetres on his NBL page, which translate to nearly 6'7. Very rare to see 6'6+ players with Ball's level of handling and passing.
His length and standing reach are unknown, but on tape I saw Ball make several good pays by using his length. His wingspan is likely around 6'9.
Very poor strength level. Based on his NBL page, he's 194 lbs, but Ball appears even lighter. NBL players went through him incredibly easily. On defense Ball was bullied by opposing players who drove through him to get to the rim. On offense Ball was contact avoidant and rarely tried to finish over defenders.
Finishing
Mix of strengths and weaknesses for his finishing. Soft touch with either hand and has nice skill finishes but too dependent on his floater and completely lacks strength and physicality.
Uses both hands well. Keeps defenders guessing as to which hand he will use.
Good at contorting his body to finish. Gets shots off from weird angles. Uses lots of nifty reverse layups.
Uses rim well to shield defenders.
Nice length extension. Makes the most of his height and wingspan.
Threat of his passing helps his finishing because he keeps opponents guessing as to whether he will pass or shoot.
Finishes well out of spins. Gets to other side of rim quickly.
Very good floater. Only uses his right hand for his floaters. Deep range, takes floaters from behind the FT line. Very soft touch and gets lots of arc.
But far too reliant on his floater. Takes floaters when he should take another dribble to get him closer to rim. Uses his floater as a crutch to avoid contact, when he should just take it at the defender instead. Sometimes gets too speed up on his floaters, shoots them in a rush.
Prone to weird misses on what should be easy finishes. Leaves it short a lot: sometimes fails to get ball up high enough on glass, even gets blocked by rim/backboard on occasion.
Occasionally passes up an easy finish for a pass. Could be more aggressive with his finishing.
In general gets too cute at rim when he should just go up and finish. Messes around with different moves, faking defenders.
Gets speed up on his finishes because he tries very hard to avoid defenders.
Lacks strength and physicality. Avoids contact. Did not get to free-throw line much. Does not over power defenders at rim. Uses finesse finishes. Needs to add strength for NBA, can't push defenders off their spots right now. The strength-physicality problem was magnified playing against grown men in the NBL, but Ball was even contact avoidant in highschool.
Shooting
High volume, low percentage shooter. Very unorthodox form, but shot has more versatility (midrange pullups, movement shooting) than other unorthodox shooters like Lonzo Ball and Tyrese Haliburton.
(LaMelo) Ball takes a lot of jumpers. He shoots from anywhere once he crosses halfcourt, and he shoots pullup, contested 3s early in the shotclock. Per Spencer Pearlman, 95 of his 184 FGA attempts were jumpshots, and of those 95, 43 attempts were off the dribble, at a 34.9% adjusted field goal percentage.
Ball takes many tough shots too early in the shotclock, but he also takes his share of end-of-clock "bailouts." Just cutting down on the bad shots will improve his percentages.
Ball's form is unorthodox: both his elbows flare, and his shot starts at the left side of his face. Although Ball gets into his shot quickly and gets reasonably square to the basket, there are inconsistencies with his feet placement - particularly how close or far apart they are. On the plus, Ball's wrist action looks smooth - he gets a lot of rotation on the ball, and he has a high-arcing shot. He's spoken in interviews that it's very important to him to flick his wrist and use a clean follow through.
Ball sets up his pullup 3s very well. He looks comfortable taking them going either way off the dribble (based on the tape he may slightly prefer going to the left).
Ball also takes stepback 3s. He gets a lot of separation on them. However, the stepbacks appear to strain his range: he often has to kick his legs and lean backwards to get the shot off.
Ball looks reasonably comfortable on catch-and-shoot shots, although the aforementioned form problems persist. Per Spencer Pearlman, he shot 11/29, good for a 56.9 adjusted field goal percentage.
Although the sample is very small, Ball looks comfortable with catch-and-shoot off movement. In both the NBL and highschool, Ball looked comfortable moving (not sprinting) off screens, getting squared up, and shooting. It won't feature heavily in Ball's game, but I project Ball can work in some sets as a movement shooter.
Ball also looks comfortable going left or right on midrange pullups out of PNR. He shoot them without hesitation against drop coverages, and although I don't trust the percentages yet, I project he can make enough to keep defenses honest.
Handle
Ball's handle is excellent for a 6'7 player, and it gives him primary initiator equity.
Ball handles like a guard, and he looks comfortable going either direction.
He has all the main moves, but his two most effective ones are his behind-the-back dribble and his hesitation dribble.
Ball uses his behind-the-back dribble to drive or get into a shot, and he can even pass out of it. The behind-the-back is very effective and creative; Ball breaks some ankles with it.
He freezes defenders (particularly bigs) with his hesitation dribble.
Ball also strings multiple moves together: for example his crossovers flow seamlessly into a spin.
Ball has lots of control over his handle. He handles well in tight spaces (like splitting the PNR) and he changes direction well and stops quickly.
Biggest handling weakness: prone to over dribbling. Goes into unnecessary sequences where he tries to "dance" on defenders and goes nowhere. When he gets into these sequences he tends to do a bunch repeated crossovers. His handle can get pretty high here, and this is where Ball is most likely to turn it over. Ball should eliminate these sequences from his game.
Passing
Terrific passer. Best passer in this draft class, should be one of the best passers in the NBA: great vision, anticipatory, very versatile.
Very anticipatory. Passes teammates open. Sees openings no one else does: for example, leads his roll men to open positions with his passes.
Makes reads incredibly quickly. Passes quickly off cuts, offensive rebounds, etc.
Manipulates defenses.Uses lots of headfakes, eyefakes, fakes with his handle. Keeps defenses guessing. Understands how to drive to set up the pass. Takes the extra dribble to draw in the defense.
Three-level passer: always sees and hits POP, wings, roll/lob. Great vision - always sees all his teammates.
Usually avoids jump passing - keeps defenses guessing as to whether he'll pass or not until the last second.
Great accuracy and precision. Gets passes to shooters right in their numbers. Throws passes to bigs that are easy to score off.
Excellent live-dribble passer. Doesn't get blinders on drives. Special ability passing on the move. Almost always sees the passes when he's driving (dumpoff, pass to corner, pass out to POP big, etc.).
Great at overhead hook passes, especially with right hand. Throws them on drives.
Makes "easier reads" like pocket passes too. Not just a flashy passer.
Improvises a lot of passes out of his team's offensive sets. Creates big advantages out of minor openings. For example, if a switch is not airtight, Ball exploits it with a pass that gets his big open.
Great transition passer. Throws "quarterback" style outlet passes. Gets ball right on money from long distance. Throws into tight windows.
Only small flaw is he occasionally gets a little cavalier with his passing: he'll throw a risky crosscourt pass or force a unfeasible pass to a big. But Ball spends so much time creating that some turnovers are inevitable.
PNR Offense
Ball is already a savvy PNR operative with lots of tricks to beat defenses. But Ball can improve by slowing down more (snaking, getting defenders in jail).
Uses lots of little fakes to setup defenders in PNR. Fakes one way, goes the other. Very effective in HORNS sets where he has multiple options to work with.
With his tight, creative handle, Ball is very good at splitting the PNR, which helps create driving opportunities for him.
Keeps defenses guessing with his eyes. Does not reveal who his passing target is until the last second (or if he will pull the floater or not).
Uses his screeners well. Runs shoulder-to-shoulder with his bigs.
Great pocket passer. Really nice off either hand.
In general, Ball must learn to play slower in PNR. Must learn to snake more and put defenders in jail. Should learn to probe/Nash around rim more. Right now he tends to rush into tough pullups when patience would have unlocked a better shot.
Given Ball's shaky shooting and sub-elite physical tools, there are questions about whether Ball can beat under coverages and switch coverages. I'll address each.
Against under coverages: Ball is very willing (arguably too willing, given his low percentages) to pullup. I like that he is confident enough to take it. But Ball also uses screens/re-screens to rework the unders and force teams to go over. Also beats unders with his passing. Can still find little gaps to feed the screener or can manipulate (headfake, dribble manipulation, etc.) space enough to shift the defense and find a shooter.
Has more trouble against switching schemes because he can't always win 1-on-1 and wastes too much time trying to ISO. However when the defense is not airtight in their switches, Ball can exploit little hesitations and openings of space by finding a driving angle or getting making a pass to his big. Ball also has enough juice to beat slower bigs 1-on-1.
Creation Outlook
Good knack for offensive rebounding. Follows his shot well. Makes passes quickly off offensive rebounds.
Does not look that comfortable attacking isolations. Has trouble getting separation, even against bigger defenders. And lacks the strength to power through. Dances a lot but does not go anywhere.
But does have some success in ISOs, especially when defender plays him close. Not like he can never create. Has a solid first step.
Needs to learn Lou William/DeRozan fakes to beat defenders on switches.
Cuts well (when he wants). Sells the cut with a fake out to 3pt line. His cuts are incredibly effective because if he collapses the defense at all he takes advantage of it.
Sets up most of his drives with a hesitation dribble.
Does not consistently blowby defenders in isolation. Will need a screen to create against most good NBA defenders.
Excellent against shifting defenses. Exploits indecision.
Decent ability to beat bigs on switches. Unsure if he'll blowby most NBA bigs, but he get enough separation to unlock his passing game. If bigs keep him in front it's because they are not respecting Ball's shot. If they come out to play the shot Ball can go by them.
If defender is able to stay attached to Ball's hip after the initial screen, Ball does not have much ability to separate after that. And is not strong enough to power through.
The best way to guard Ball is for his man to just back up and have other defenders stay at home.
Ball looks rushed on the way he gets into shots. Must learn to create a little more separation with his dribble and gather himself better.
Great transition player. Great handle, incredible passing.
Team Defense, Defensive Awareness
Underrated team defender. Not good yet, but has decent instincts, and not as disastrous as some suggest.
Actually understands most rotations. E.g., plays block then get out to shooters.
Very inconsistent, but has sequences flying around making multiple rotations.
Gets steals due to his anticipatory instincts & solid length. Good sense for where passes are going.
Makes the occasional weakside block using his instincts and length. Good sense of timing. But currently too weak to be a good rim protector - defenders go through his chest.
Good instincts for grabbing defensive rebounds but misses box out assignments.
However there were too many instances of Ball playing with poor effort and focus. Some common mistakes: not closing out to shooters when he should, playing with his arms at his side, general lack of focus, missing tags, and not digging enough.
Lackadaisical transition defense. Swipes at ball without sliding his feet.
Closeouts
Inconsistent about closing out hard. Sometimes decided not to.
Must improve his closeout angles he takes. Must learn which hand to closeout too. Gave up too many driving angles. With his poor frame and strength level, it was easy for offensive players to drive through him.
Did a decent job closing out with short choppy feet. But overall ability to slide feet and contain after his closeouts was spoor. His lack of strength made it easy for offensive players to power through him.
Good length for getting contests up. Has enough length to bother shots.
Also has enough length and quickness to occassionally blowup DHOs.
Offball Defense
Poor offball defender. Disengaged and struggles to clear screens.
Guilty of falling asleep offball and giving up cuts. Too often stands flat-footed with his arms at his side. Does not track movement well. Ball watches. Gets himself caught in no man's land: not guarding his man but not helping the team defense either.
Does not keep head on swivel. Does not work hard to see man-ball.
Very poor navigating screens. Either does not fight hard enough to get over, or lacks the strength to fight through.
In the NBL he was able to cheat under screens, take some shortcuts, and still recover for blocks and good contests. Less likely to get away with it in the NBA when he's facing more athletic and more skilled payers.
PNR Defense
Struggles to clear screens. Gets screened off easily. Little margin for error with his thin frame.
Too willing to go under against good shooters. Does not compete to chase pullup threats over screens.
Often fails to get back into play when he gets screened off. Does not consistently recover to his man.
With his thin frame, will struggle to operate in a switch scheme.
Onball Defense
Flashes of quick feet and ability to guard on perimeter. Definitely has the quickness to guard most wings.
Looks like nice when he sits down in a stance and keeps his arms up. Covers ground pretty fast laterally. Shows some subtle technical ability to nudge defenders in the direction he wants them to go. Works the angles.
Too often fails to get in a stance. Stays upright and vulnerable. Gets caught flatfooted.
Biggest issue is lack of strength - offensive players go through him too easily. Cannot hold his position. May keep man in front, but man still goes right through him to rim.
Looked uncomfortable with "scouting report" defense. Repeatedly feel for opposing player's signature moves.
Some footwork issues. Does not keep man squared up.
Flashes of being very quick on feet - will even pressure opposing guards.